WORKING PAPERS

Political Sentiment and Innovation: Evidence from Patenters (joint with Runjing Liu, Will Mullins and Rick Townsend)
What it's about: Democratic inventors are more likely to patent (relative to Republicans) after the 2008 election of Obama but less likely after the 2016 election of Trump

 
Cross-State Strategic Voting (joint with Gordon Dahl, Runjing Liu and Will Mullins)
What it's about: Six million Americans are registered to vote in two states and they strategically choose which state to vote in, preferring swing states and states that make it easy to vote.

Invited Presentations: Northwestern University (Kellogg, 2023); Indiana University (Kelley, 2022); Univeristy of Colorado (Leeds, 2022)


On the Casual Effects of Fame on Citations (joint with Jonathan Brogaard, Sapnoti Eswar and Ed Van Wesep), forthcoming at Management Science
What it's about: Papers published in economics journals whose first authors are famous have more citations than papers whose second or third authors are famous. Author order is alphabetical so these patterns are unrelated to underlying quality.

Invited Presentations: AEA Meeting (online, 2021)


Partisan Entrepreneurship (joint with Jorge Guzman, Runjing Liu and Will Mullins), revise and resubmit at the Journal of Finance
What it's about: Republicans start more firms than Democrats, especially during Republican administrations.

Invited Presentations: NBER Summer Institute (2021); Colorado Finance Summit (2021); HEC Paris Entrepreneurship Workshop (2021)


The Partisanship of Financial Regulators (joint with Matt Henriksson, Asaf Manela and Jared Williams), forthcoming at at the Review of Financial Studies
What it's about: Financial regulators, especially SEC commissioners, are sounding more and more like politicians.

Invited Presentations: SFS Cavalcade (2020); EFA Meeting (2021); Federal Reserve Board of Governors; UC Irvine (Merage); Stanford Accounting Camp (2018); FMA Meeting (2021); MFA Meeting (2021); University of Sussex; Wake Forest University


The Portfolio-Driven Disposition Effect (joint with An Li, Matthew Henriksson, Baolian Wang and Jared Williams), revise and resubmit at the Journal of Finance
What it's about: We find investors show a large dispotion effect only when their portfolio is at a loss and almost no disposition effect when their portfolio is at a gain.

Invited Presentations: AFA Meeting (Philadelphia, 2019); CEPR Household Finance Conference (2018); NFA conference (2018); Florida Finance Conference (2018)


First, Do No Harm: Financial Conflicts in Medicine (joint with Chris Parsons and Nathan Tefft)
What it's about: We find that when a doctor is paid by a pharmaceutical firm he is more likely to prescribe that firm's drug, both relative to close substitutes and even generic versions of the same drug. This payment-prescription sensitivity is stronger among men and in high-corruption states.
Invited Presentations: AEA Meeting (Boston, 2015); University of Texas at Austin (McCombs, 2015); University of Washington (Foster, 2013); Harvard University (HBS, 2013); University of Pennslyvania (Wharton, 2013); University of Southern California (2013); Southern California Finance Conference (Claremont McKenna, 2013)


Costly Information processing: Evidence from Earnings Announcements
What it's about: We find evidence that on earnings announcements the market incorporates soft, textual information more slowly than hard, quantitative information.
Invited Presentations:University of Chicago (GSB); Goldman Sachs Asset Management; University of North Carolina (Kenan-Flagler); Yale (SOM); Columbia University (GSB); University of Illinois (COB); Georgetown University (McDonough); University of Southern California (Marshall); UC Irvine (Merage); Notre Dame (Mendoza); DePaul University (Kellstadt); Indiana University (Kelley); University of Iowa (Tippie); Dartmouth College (Tuck)


The Long-Short Wars: Evidence of End-of-Year Price Manipulation by Short Sellers (joint with Jesse Blocher and Adam Reed)
What it's about: We find evidence that short-sellers manipulate end-of-year prices by applying downward price pressure.
Invited Presentations: AFA Meeting (Chicago, 2012)

 

PUBLISHED PAPERS


Echo Chambers (joint with Tony Cookson and Will Mullins), Review of Financial Studies (2023)

What it's about: Bulls and bears place themselves in "echo chambers," i.e. they selectively expose themselves to information which confirms their already-held belief.

Invited Presentations: Miami Behavioral Conference (2021); WFA Meeting (2021); Columbia University; Rice University; Texas Tech University; University of Rochester (Simon); London Business School; Georgetown University (McDonough); University of Colorado (Leeds); Finance in the Cloud III; Social Finance Day (Georgetown); Australasian AFBC Conference (2020); Midwest Finance Association (2021); SFS Cavalcade (2021); Institute for Behavioral and Household Finance Symposium (Cornell, 2021); Shanghai Financial Forefront Symposium (2021); China International Conference in Finance (2021); CQA Fall Conference (2021); European Economic Association (ESEM, 2021); Baruch (Zicklin); Carnegie Mellon (Tepper); Indiana (Kelley); Northwestern (Kellogg); London Business School



Do Cross-Sectional Predictors Contain Systematic Information? (joint with Jeff Pontiff, David McLean and Matthew Ringgenberg), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (2022)

What it's about: After accounting for data mining, we find that cross-sectional predictors do not make good time series predictors.

Invited Presentations: AFA Meeting (Atlanta, 2019); MIT (Sloan); TCU (Neeley); UC-Berkeley; University of Kentucky (Gatton); University of Michigan (Ross); UNLV (Lee), UC Riverside; University of Virginia (Mcintire), Washington University in St. Louis (Olin); York University; University of Oklahoma (Price); Rutgers University


Affiliation Bias in the Online Market for Rental Accommodation (joint with Barbara Bliss and Mitch Warachka), Real Estate Economics (2020)

What it's about: We find that Airbnb hosts in college towns set prices too high when football rivals come to town and lose money by doing so.

Invited Presentations: AFA Meeting (Atlanta, 2019); FIRS Meeting (Savannah, 2019); Finance Down Under Conference (2018); Oregon Summer Finance Conference (2017); , Helsinki Finance Summit (2017); California Corporate Finance Conference (Loyola Marymount University, 2017); Vietnam International Conference in Finance (2017); China Europe International Business School; Southwestern University of Finance and Economics


Analysts and Anomalies (joint with Jeff Pontiff and David McLean), Journal of Accounting and Economics (2020)

What it's about: We find that analysts’ price targets and recommendations contradict stock return anomalies.

Invited Presentations: AFA Meeting (Philadelphia, 2018); Arizona State (Carey); Cornell (Johnson); Drexel (Lebow); INSEAD; University of Utah (Eccles); Case-Western (Weatherhead); Bentley; Naval Postgraduate School; University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; University of Illinois at Chicago (Geis); University of Miami; Villanova University; Purdue University (Krannert); Michigan State University Conference on Financial Institutions (2016); UC Riverside’s Citrus Finance Conference 92018); UT Dallas Spring Finance Conference (2017)


Stock Market Anomalies and Baseball Cards (joint with Linh Le and Jared Williams), Financial Review (2019)

What it's about: We find that several stock market anomalies -- such as momentum and IPO underperformance -- also exist in the market for baseball cards.

Invited Presentations: FIRS Meeting (Hong Kong, 2017); AFA Meeting (Philadelphia, 2018)


Anomalies and News (joint with Jeff Pontiff and David McLean), Journal of Finance (2018)

What it's about: We find that anomaly returns are much higher on news days.

Invited Presentations: Chicago (Booth, 2016); UC Berkeley (Haas, 2015); UCLA (Anderson, 2015); Yale (SOM, 2015); Cornell University (Johnson, 2015); University of Washington (Foster, 2015); UC Irvine (Merage, 2015); Michigan State (Broad, 2015); University of Utah (Eccles, 2015); European Finance Association (Vienna, 2015); ESCP (2015); University of Missouri (Trulaske, 2015); University of South Florida (Muma, 2016); The Tinbergen Institute (2015); Depaul University (Driehaus, 2015); UC Riverside (Anderson, 2015); Arizona State (Carey, 2015); Temple University (Fox, 2015); Ben Graham Centre's 5th Symposium on Intelligent Investing (Ontario, 2016); Acadian Asset Management (Boston, 2016); Claremont McKenna College (2015); University of Tennessee Smoky Mountain Conference (Asheville, 2016); Miami Behavioral Finance Conference (Miami, 2015); SFS Cavalcade (Toronto, 2016)


Short Selling Risk (joint with Adam Reed and Matt Riggenberg).Journal of Finance (2018)

What it's about: We show that stocks for which the risk of going on special or being recalled is high (i.e., are less attractive for short-sellers) have low future returns
Invited Presentations: Red Rock Finance Conference (Zion National Park, 2014); FSU Suntrust Beach Conference (Destin, 2014); FIRS Conference (Quebec City, 2014); UC Irvine (Merage, 2014); Conference on the Frontiers of Systemic Risk Modelling and Forecasting (Cambridge/LSE, 2014); Data Explorers Securities Financing Forum (New York, 2012); IMN Beneficial Owner’s International Securities Lending Conference (2013, New Orleans); Rodney L. White Center Conference on Financial Decisions and Asset Markets (Wharton, 2015); University of Michigan; University of Cambridge


Do Economists Swing for the Fences After Tenure? (joint with Jonathan Brogaard and Ed Van Wesep) Journal of Economic Perspectives (2018)

What it's about: We find that, among finance and economics professors, both the quantity and the quality of publications fall after tenure.

Invited Presentations: Revelstoke Finance Summit (British Columbia, 2015); California Corporate Finance Conference (2016); Labor and Finance Group Winter Meeting (2016); Jackson Hole Finance Conference (2017); Financial Institutions, Regulation and Corporate Governance Conference (2016); Pacific Northwest Finance Conference (2016); Utah Winter Finance Conference (2017)


Know thy Neighbor (joint with Arzu Ozoguz and Sean Wang), Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis (2017)

What it's about: We find evidence that firms located in geographic industry clusters have more efficient prices: they are more likely to be covered by analysts, held by mutual funds which already have a holding in the cluster and exhibit less price delay with respect to industry information.
Invited Presentations: University of Southern California (2010); Rutgers University (2010); University of Washington (2010); UT Dallas (2010); Financial Intermediation Research Society Conference (2010, Florence); Sixth Annual Asset Pricing Retreat (2010, Amsterdam); American Finance Association Meeting (2011, Denver)


Human Capital and the Supply of Religion (joint with Ray Fisman, Jay Hartzell, and Chris Parsons), Review of Economics and Statistics (2016)

What it's about: We use the rotations of United Methodist ministers in the state of Oklahoma to estimate the effect of individual pastors on religious participation.
Invited Presentations: University of Southern California (Marshall, 2011); University of California - San Diego (Economics, 2011); University of Maryland (2011); University of Texas (McCombs, 2011); Columbia University (2011)


Worrying about the Stock Market: Evidence from Hospital Admissions (joint with Chris Parsons), Journal of Finance (2016)

What it's about: We find increases in hospitalizations - particularly for mental conditions - immediately after large declines in stock prices.
Invited Presentations: AFA Meeting (2014); UC Berkeley (Haas, 2014); UC San Diego (Economics, 2013), UC Irvine (Merage, 2013); UC Berkeley (Economics, 2014); Michigan State (Broad, 2014); University of Miami (2014); University of Alabama (Culverhouse, 2013); Washington State University (2013); UIC (Chicago, 2014); Tulane University (Freeman, 2013); Arizona State University (Carey, 2013); Drexel University (Lebow, 2013); Georgia State University (Robinson, 2013); Southern California Finance Conference (Claremont McKenna, 2013)


Anchoring on Credit Spreads (joint with Casey Dougal, Chris Parsons and Ed Van Wesep), Journal of Finance (2015)

What it's about:We find that the interest rate a firm happens to borrow at last time influences its current borrowing costs. The evidence suggests that borrowers
and lenders use past terms as "anchors" (Tversky and Kahneman [1974]), and that these
seemingly irrelevant reference points influence future transactions.
Invited Presentations: NBER Corporate Finance Meeting (Chicago, 2011); University of Michigan (2011); UC Irvine (Merage, 2011); SFS Cavalcade (2011); University of Washington (Foster, 2011); Florida State University (2011); AFA Meeting (Chicago, 2012), University of Oregon (Lundquist, 2012), Brigham Young University (Marriott, 2013), Tilburg University (2012), Erasmus University (Rotterdam, 2012), Duisenberg School of Finance (Amsterdam, 2012), Indiana University (Kelley, 2013)


The Sum of All FEARS: Investor Sentiment and Asset Prices (joint with Zhi Da and Paul Gao), Review of Financial Studies (2015)

What it's about:We use search volume (for terms like "recession" and "inflation") to measure investor sentiment in real time and link investor sentiment to market-level returns, volatility and fund flows.
Invited Presentations:NBER Behavioral Economics Meeting (Chicago, 2010); Western Finance Association Meeting (Victoria, 2010)
Data: Daily FEARS updated through 12/30/2011


Network Position and Productivity: Causal Evidence from Editor Rotations (joint with Jonathan Brogaard and Chris Parsons), Journal of Financial Economics (2014)

What it's about: We find that when a journal rotates to a new editor, members of the editor's network publish twice as many articles in the editor's journal. These "inside articles" have significantly higher ex post citation counts, suggesting that personal associations are used to improve selection decisions.
Invited Presentations: New York University (Stern, 2011); Harvard University (HBS, 2011); University of Washington (Foster, 2011); University of Alberta (2011); Florida State University (2011), HKUST (2012), Singapore Management University (2012), University of Oklahoma (2012), Nanyang Technological University (2012), UC Irvine (Merage, 2012)


The Price of a CEO's Rolodex (joint with Paul Gao and Chris Parsons), Review of Financial Studies (2013)
What it's about: We estimate the size of each CEO's social network (rolodex) and show that CEOs with large networks earn more than those with small ones.
Invited Presentations: Western Finance Association Meeting (Victoria, 2010)


Journalists and the Stock Market (joint with Casey Dougal, Diego Garcia and Chris Parsons), Review of Financial Studies (2012), RFS Best Paper Award (1st Prize)

What it's about: We find that individual journalists of a well-known Wall Street Journal column influence aggregate market prices. Because these journalists are randomly assigned to the column (the day they write has nothing to do with market returns), we can identify a causal effect of media on aggregate market prices.
Invited Presentations: University of Pennsylvania (Wharton, 2011); Boston College (2010); University of Arizona (2010); INSEAD (2010); University of Toronto (2010); FM/UC-Davis Napa Valley Conference (2011); SFS Cavalcade (Michigan, 2011)


How are Shorts Informed? Short Sellers, News and Information Processing (joint with Adam Reed and Matt Riggenberg), Journal of Financial Economics (2012)

What it's about: We find short-sellers have much more profitable trades on news days than off news days, evidence that short-sellers' skill may be coming from their ability to process information in news events.
Invited Presentations: Utah Winter Finance Conference (2010); American Finance Association Meeting (2011, Denver); University of Southern California (Marshall, 2011)


Friends with Money (joint with Paul Gao and Chris Parsons), Journal of Financial Economics (2012), JFE Best Paper Award (2nd Prize)

What it's about: When firm employees share a personal connection with bank employees, loan terms are more favorable (lower rates and fewer covenants), and the firm experiences better ex-post performance (measured by credit quality and stock market returns).
Invited Presentations: Texas Finance Festival (2010); University of Houston (2010); University of Washington (2010); Michigan State University (Broad); University of Rochester (Simon)


Market Madness: The Case of Mad Money (joint with Jared Williams), Management Science (2012)

What it's about: We investigate the return patterns around stock recommendations made on the CNBC show Mad Money hosted by Jim Cramer.
Invited Presentations: Yale Whitebox Conference (2007)


The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets (joint with Chris Parsons), Journal of Finance (2011)

What it's about: Because it's challenging to disentangle the causal impact of media reporting from the impact of the events being reported, we solve this problem by comparing the behaviors of investors with access to different (local) media coverage of the same information event.
Invited Presentations: Financial Research Association Conference (Las Vegas, 2009); Columbia University (2009); NBER Behavioral Economics Meeting (Cambridge, 2009); Texas A&M (2009); Western Finance Association Meeting (Victoria, 2010; WINNER: Best Empirical Finance Paper)


In Search of Attention (joint with Zhi Da and Paul Gao), Journal of Finance (2011)

What it's about: We use Google search volume for stock tickers (e.g. "AAPL") as a new, direct measure of investor attention.
Invited Presentations: PanAgora Asset Management Crowell Prize Competition (WINNER: First Prize, 2010); UC Irvine (Merage, 2009); NBER Market Microstructure Meeting (Cambridge, 2009); University of Georgia (2009); Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Competition (WINNER: First Prize, 2009); AFA Meeting (San Francisco, 2009); Fifth Annual Behavioral Science Conference (Yale, 2009); CEPR Summer Symposium (2010, Gerzensee)


Assessing the Temporal Variation of Macroeconomic Forecasts by a Panel of Changing Composition (joint with Charles Manski and Jared Williams), Journal of Applied Econometrics (2010)

What it's about:We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to call attention to the inference problem that arises under changing panel composition. For example, when the average GDP forecast rises, we do not know whether all forecasters raised their expectations of GDP or whether optimistic forecasters entered the survey panel and pessimistic ones left (or both).


EBay's proxy bidding: A License to Shill (joint with Jared Williams), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (2009)

Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters (joint with Charles Manski and Jared Williams), Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2009)